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This is an archived track record. This track record was archived on 12/29/22 19:47 ET. (See latest track record)
These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more

AI TQQQ Low Volatility
(139526503)

Created by: QuantTiger QuantTiger
Started: 02/2022
Stocks
Last trade: 456 days ago
Trading style: Equity Trend-following

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $95.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Equity
Trend-following
Category: Equity

Trend-following

Tries to take advantage of long, medium or short-term moves that seem to play out in various markets. Typically, trend-following analysis is backward looking; that is, it attempts to recognize and profit from already-established trends.
-6.4%
Annual Return (Compounded)

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return is calculated

= ((Ending_equity / Starting_equity) ^ (1 / age_in_years)) - 1

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(61.6%)
Max Drawdown
58
Num Trades
51.7%
Win Trades
1.0 : 1
Profit Factor
19.2%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2022       (0.5%)+22.7%+3.5%+1.0%(5.4%)+20.7%(14.3%)(13.5%)(11.8%)(19.8%)+13.9%(13%)
2023  -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -    -  0.0
2024  -    -    -                                                        0.0

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 168 hours.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 117 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. To see live brokerage data, select Show AutoTrade Data, and click on a Live AutoTrade Indicator symbol.

Download CSV
Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQtyAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
12/28/22 9:30 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 1,252 16.76 12/29 15:59 17.34 4.05%
Trade id #143016819
Max drawdown($826)
Time12/28/22 15:15
Quant open1,252
Worst price16.10
Drawdown as % of equity-4.05%
$727
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
12/14/22 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 246 44.25 12/27 15:59 55.91 n/a $2,864
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.92
12/9/22 9:30 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 804 21.09 12/14 15:59 21.87 1.93%
Trade id #142827304
Max drawdown($337)
Time12/12/22 0:00
Quant open804
Worst price20.67
Drawdown as % of equity-1.93%
$622
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
12/8/22 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 233 45.59 12/9 9:30 46.10 n/a $115
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.66
12/7/22 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 815 20.57 12/8 15:59 21.30 0.86%
Trade id #142804871
Max drawdown($146)
Time12/8/22 9:45
Quant open815
Worst price20.39
Drawdown as % of equity-0.86%
$590
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
12/6/22 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 241 46.65 12/7 15:59 47.23 0.64%
Trade id #142789689
Max drawdown($107)
Time12/7/22 9:37
Quant open241
Worst price46.20
Drawdown as % of equity-0.64%
$136
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.82
12/1/22 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 768 23.73 12/6 15:59 20.81 14.87%
Trade id #142740737
Max drawdown($2,484)
Time12/6/22 14:38
Quant open768
Worst price20.50
Drawdown as % of equity-14.87%
($2,251)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
11/30/22 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 291 41.62 12/1 15:59 41.16 1.75%
Trade id #142725509
Max drawdown($333)
Time12/1/22 9:57
Quant open291
Worst price40.47
Drawdown as % of equity-1.75%
($138)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.82
11/29/22 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 813 20.82 11/30 15:59 23.52 0.81%
Trade id #142713199
Max drawdown($138)
Time11/30/22 12:21
Quant open813
Worst price20.65
Drawdown as % of equity-0.81%
$2,186
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
11/28/22 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 237 46.80 11/29 15:59 47.83 0.4%
Trade id #142699828
Max drawdown($67)
Time11/29/22 10:30
Quant open237
Worst price46.52
Drawdown as % of equity-0.40%
$238
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.74
11/16/22 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 773 22.04 11/28 15:59 21.30 5.62%
Trade id #142590394
Max drawdown($935)
Time11/22/22 0:00
Quant open773
Worst price20.83
Drawdown as % of equity-5.62%
($576)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
11/15/22 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 257 43.78 11/16 15:59 45.42 n/a $416
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.14
11/11/22 14:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 735 22.82 11/15 15:59 22.91 4.36%
Trade id #142539593
Max drawdown($735)
Time11/14/22 0:00
Quant open735
Worst price21.82
Drawdown as % of equity-4.36%
$61
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
11/4/22 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 223 59.81 11/11 14:58 44.04 20.66%
Trade id #142448371
Max drawdown($3,518)
Time11/11/22 14:58
Quant open223
Worst price44.03
Drawdown as % of equity-20.66%
($3,520)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.46
10/26/22 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 1,076 20.98 11/4 15:59 17.86 22.6%
Trade id #142333369
Max drawdown($4,449)
Time11/4/22 14:06
Quant open1,076
Worst price16.85
Drawdown as % of equity-22.60%
($3,373)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
10/19/22 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 286 57.23 10/26 15:59 52.49 10.09%
Trade id #142234597
Max drawdown($2,399)
Time10/25/22 0:00
Quant open286
Worst price48.84
Drawdown as % of equity-10.09%
($1,362)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.72
10/18/22 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 1,240 19.74 10/19 15:59 19.52 3.6%
Trade id #142217183
Max drawdown($904)
Time10/19/22 13:05
Quant open1,240
Worst price19.01
Drawdown as % of equity-3.60%
($271)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
9/30/22 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 299 61.33 10/18 15:59 56.74 13.39%
Trade id #141998118
Max drawdown($3,225)
Time10/6/22 0:00
Quant open299
Worst price50.54
Drawdown as % of equity-13.39%
($1,377)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.98
9/28/22 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 1,303 22.34 9/30 15:59 19.30 14.45%
Trade id #141967775
Max drawdown($3,980)
Time9/30/22 15:59
Quant open1,303
Worst price19.28
Drawdown as % of equity-14.45%
($3,960)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
9/26/22 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 380 57.05 9/28 15:59 53.41 5.29%
Trade id #141935854
Max drawdown($1,628)
Time9/28/22 15:49
Quant open380
Worst price52.77
Drawdown as % of equity-5.29%
($1,392)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.60
9/23/22 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 1,467 21.25 9/26 15:59 21.01 1.9%
Trade id #141913420
Max drawdown($616)
Time9/26/22 13:59
Quant open1,467
Worst price20.83
Drawdown as % of equity-1.90%
($354)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
9/21/22 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 403 51.53 9/23 15:59 56.41 n/a $1,961
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.06
9/16/22 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 1,185 24.70 9/21 15:59 23.36 5.57%
Trade id #141837836
Max drawdown($1,741)
Time9/21/22 15:59
Quant open1,185
Worst price23.23
Drawdown as % of equity-5.57%
($1,593)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
8/29/22 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 354 43.05 9/16 15:59 48.94 3.41%
Trade id #141582933
Max drawdown($1,020)
Time9/12/22 0:00
Quant open354
Worst price40.17
Drawdown as % of equity-3.41%
$2,076
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.08
8/25/22 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 901 34.38 8/29 15:59 29.37 16.06%
Trade id #141549757
Max drawdown($4,883)
Time8/29/22 11:12
Quant open901
Worst price28.96
Drawdown as % of equity-16.06%
($4,519)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
8/22/22 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 453 39.67 8/25 15:59 37.35 3.08%
Trade id #141500117
Max drawdown($1,082)
Time8/25/22 15:59
Quant open453
Worst price37.28
Drawdown as % of equity-3.08%
($1,058)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.06
8/2/22 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 986 32.99 8/22 15:59 32.45 2%
Trade id #141276549
Max drawdown($722)
Time8/22/22 15:44
Quant open986
Worst price32.26
Drawdown as % of equity-2.00%
($537)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
7/29/22 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 455 39.84 8/2 15:59 40.26 1.6%
Trade id #141236411
Max drawdown($583)
Time8/1/22 0:00
Quant open455
Worst price38.56
Drawdown as % of equity-1.60%
$183
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.10
7/28/22 15:59 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 983 31.63 7/29 15:59 33.35 n/a $1,689
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $5.00
7/27/22 15:59 SQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO SHORT QQQ LONG 400 43.40 7/28 15:59 42.14 1.76%
Trade id #141206649
Max drawdown($611)
Time7/28/22 15:06
Quant open400
Worst price41.87
Drawdown as % of equity-1.76%
($512)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.00

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    2/24/2022
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $15,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    763.99
  • Age
    25 months ago
  • What it trades
    Stocks
  • # Trades
    58
  • # Profitable
    30
  • % Profitable
    51.70%
  • Avg trade duration
    5.2 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    61.62%
  • drawdown period
    Aug 16, 2022 - Nov 15, 2022
  • Annual Return (Compounded)
    -6.4%
  • Avg win
    $1,595
  • Avg loss
    $1,765
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $23,474
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $23,474
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    0.97:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    -0.04
  • Sortino Ratio
    -0.05
  • Calmar Ratio
    -0.052
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    -35.56%
  • Correlation to SP500
    -0.06460
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    22.52%
  • Verified
  • C2Star
    0
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    -6.4%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    96.60%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    n/a
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.77%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    n/a
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    -0.064%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    n/a
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    1.00%
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    -3.0%
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 10% account loss
    98.50%
  • Chance of 20% account loss
    76.50%
  • Chance of 30% account loss
    52.50%
  • Chance of 40% account loss
    26.00%
  • Chance of 60% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    1.00%
  • Chance of 70% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 80% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Chance of 90% account loss (Monte Carlo)
    n/a
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    n/a
  • Risk of Ruin (Monte-Carlo)
  • Chance of 50% account loss
    6.50%
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    0
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    339
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    0
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    -
  • TOS percent
    n/a
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $1,765
  • Avg Win
    $1,595
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $49,429.000
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    26
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $47,864.000
  • # Winners
    30
  • Num Months Winners
    5
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    37
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    28
  • % Winners
    51.7%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    7486.33
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    124.77
  • Avg Trade Length
    5.2 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    456
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    2.13
  • Daily leverage (max)
    3.43
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    -0.00
  • Beta
    -0.13
  • Treynor Index
    0.04
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.06
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -0.28
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.03
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.08
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    -3.088
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.02
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.593
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -1.255
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    -0.324
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.02300
  • SD
    0.40862
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.05629
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.05443
  • df
    23.00000
  • t
    0.07961
  • p
    0.46862
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.33027
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.44173
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.33156
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.44042
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.08235
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    1.50416
  • Upside part of mean
    0.42015
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.39715
  • Upside SD
    0.28642
  • Downside SD
    0.27932
  • N nonnegative terms
    5.00000
  • N negative terms
    19.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    24.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.07713
  • Mean of criterion
    0.02300
  • SD of predictor
    0.17282
  • SD of criterion
    0.40862
  • Covariance
    0.00451
  • r
    0.06386
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.15100
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.01136
  • Mean Square Error
    0.17385
  • DF error
    22.00000
  • t(b)
    0.30016
  • p(b)
    0.38344
  • t(a)
    0.03819
  • p(a)
    0.48494
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.89230
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.19429
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.60535
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.62806
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.15233
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.01136
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.05940
  • SD
    0.41951
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.14159
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.13691
  • df
    23.00000
  • t
    -0.20024
  • p
    0.57847
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.52658
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.24640
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.52338
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.24955
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.18665
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    1.20399
  • Upside part of mean
    0.38315
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.44255
  • Upside SD
    0.26014
  • Downside SD
    0.31823
  • N nonnegative terms
    5.00000
  • N negative terms
    19.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    24.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.06234
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.05940
  • SD of predictor
    0.17402
  • SD of criterion
    0.41951
  • Covariance
    0.00340
  • r
    0.04656
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.11224
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.06640
  • Mean Square Error
    0.18359
  • DF error
    22.00000
  • t(b)
    0.21861
  • p(b)
    0.41448
  • t(a)
    -0.21793
  • p(a)
    0.58525
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.95251
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.17698
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.69822
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.56543
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.52922
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.06640
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.18466
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.22412
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.10022
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.19977
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    24.00000
  • Minimum
    0.73367
  • Quartile 1
    0.99836
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00000
  • Maximum
    1.23565
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.87499
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.14199
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00164
  • Number outliers low
    6.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.25000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.87499
  • Number of outliers high
    5.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.20833
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.17039
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -2.80641
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.03151
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.03185
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.96446
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.19064
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.21618
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    3.00000
  • Minimum
    0.09139
  • Quartile 1
    0.10273
  • Median
    0.11406
  • Quartile 3
    0.28912
  • Maximum
    0.46418
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.09139
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.11406
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.46418
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.18639
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.03052
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.03100
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.06679
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -0.06679
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -0.13832
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.00389
  • SD
    0.35188
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.01106
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.01104
  • df
    543.00000
  • t
    0.01593
  • p
    0.49365
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.34913
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.37125
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.34915
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.37123
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    0.01535
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.45873
  • Upside part of mean
    1.38390
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.38001
  • Upside SD
    0.24356
  • Downside SD
    0.25352
  • N nonnegative terms
    110.00000
  • N negative terms
    434.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    544.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.08732
  • Mean of criterion
    0.00389
  • SD of predictor
    0.18669
  • SD of criterion
    0.35188
  • Covariance
    -0.00416
  • r
    -0.06333
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.11936
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.01400
  • Mean Square Error
    0.12355
  • DF error
    542.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.47725
  • p(b)
    0.92991
  • t(a)
    0.05865
  • p(a)
    0.47663
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.27807
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.03936
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.46506
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.49369
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    -0.03260
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.01431
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.05824
  • SD
    0.35345
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -0.16478
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -0.16455
  • df
    543.00000
  • t
    -0.23743
  • p
    0.59379
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.52494
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    1.19551
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.52477
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    1.19568
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -0.22208
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    5.16784
  • Upside part of mean
    1.35524
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.41348
  • Upside SD
    0.23651
  • Downside SD
    0.26225
  • N nonnegative terms
    110.00000
  • N negative terms
    434.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    544.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.06990
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.05824
  • SD of predictor
    0.18677
  • SD of criterion
    0.35345
  • Covariance
    -0.00385
  • r
    -0.05835
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.11043
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.05052
  • Mean Square Error
    0.12473
  • DF error
    542.00000
  • t(b)
    -1.36081
  • p(b)
    0.91293
  • t(a)
    -0.20607
  • p(a)
    0.58159
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.26983
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.04898
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.53211
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.43107
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.52742
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.05052
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.03549
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.04422
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01598
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03362
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    544.00000
  • Minimum
    0.88602
  • Quartile 1
    1.00000
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00000
  • Maximum
    1.12810
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.97927
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.02121
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    109.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.20037
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.97414
  • Number of outliers high
    110.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.20221
  • Mean of outliers high
    1.02623
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    -2.12945
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00383
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00396
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    -0.11888
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.02234
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.03536
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    7.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00915
  • Quartile 1
    0.02192
  • Median
    0.04167
  • Quartile 3
    0.25176
  • Maximum
    0.57913
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.01038
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.03695
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.21497
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.43384
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.22984
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    -0.02940
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    -0.02988
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    -0.05159
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    -0.06887
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    -0.67561
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.02791
  • SD
    0.00000
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    0.00000
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    0.00000
  • df
    0.00000
  • t
    0.00000
  • p
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    0.00000
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -16.18640
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upside part of mean
    0.00000
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.02791
  • Upside SD
    0.00000
  • Downside SD
    0.00172
  • N nonnegative terms
    0.00000
  • N negative terms
    131.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.39218
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.02791
  • SD of predictor
    0.11484
  • SD of criterion
    0.00000
  • Covariance
    0.00000
  • r
    0.00000
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    0.00000
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.00000
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00000
  • DF error
    0.00000
  • t(b)
    0.00000
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    0.00000
  • p(a)
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    0.00000
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.00000
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.00000
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    -0.02791
  • SD
    0.00000
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    -9748420000000000.00000
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    -9692070000000000.00000
  • df
    130.00000
  • t
    -6893170000000000.00000
  • p
    1.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -10870200000000000.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -8513980000000000.00000
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    -16.18640
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    0.00000
  • Upside part of mean
    0.00000
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.02791
  • Upside SD
    0.00000
  • Downside SD
    0.00172
  • N nonnegative terms
    0.00000
  • N negative terms
    131.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    131.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.38532
  • Mean of criterion
    -0.02791
  • SD of predictor
    0.11468
  • SD of criterion
    0.00000
  • Covariance
    -0.00000
  • r
    -0.00000
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    -0.00000
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.02791
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00000
  • DF error
    129.00000
  • t(b)
    -0.00000
  • p(b)
    0.50000
  • t(a)
    -6722200000000000.00000
  • p(a)
    1.00000
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.03500
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -0.00000
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.00000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.02791
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.02791
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    56951799999999990759605630140416.00000
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.02791
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00011
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00011
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.00000
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    131.00000
  • Minimum
    1.00000
  • Quartile 1
    1.00000
  • Median
    1.00000
  • Quartile 3
    1.00000
  • Maximum
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 1
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    0.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00000
  • Quartile 1
    0.00000
  • Median
    0.00000
  • Quartile 3
    0.00000
  • Maximum
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    n/a
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -321284000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    91
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.00000
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    0.00000

Strategy Description

Trades TQQQ (3x long Nasdaq ETF), and SQQQ. Holds positions intraday only with tight stops. Goal is to have a system with low volatility. Positions are intraday traded (no positions held overnight).

This strategy will either hold TQQQ, or SQQQ. Positions are held intraday only. Stops are used with this strategy, so that daily risk is minimized. TQQQ is highly volatile, but this strategy should be much less volatile as a system, though there can and will be strings of losing days in a row. No positions are held overnight. Use only risk money, as even though system is expected to be lower risk, system can still slowly lose money over time. System is 100% algorithmic (non-discretionary), and uses machine learning (AI) to make decisions.

1. Margin account recommended. No martingale or margin used (if IRA, IRA margin required)
2. If starting system, *** DO NOT ENTER EXISTING OPEN POSITIONS ***
3. Position size is part of the strategy, be sure to set scaling properly
4. ETFs not available on IB in Europe https://europoor.com/how-to-buy-leveraged-etfs-from-europe/
5. $30k+ account size recommended (to avoid Pattern Day Trader violations)
6. Auto-trading *** HIGHLY *** recommended.

* AI TQQQ SQQQ swing: long/short, autotrading, $30k+, collective2.com/details/128265049
* AI TQQQ only swing: long only, autotrading, $10k+, collective2.com/details/131561344
* AI SOXL SOXS swing: long/short, autotrading, $30k+, collective2.com/details/127841340
* AI TQQQ intraday: long/short, autotrading, $30k+, collective2.com/details/139526503

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2022-02-24
Suggested Minimum Capital
$15,000
# Trades
58
# Profitable
30
% Profitable
51.7%
Net Dividends
Correlation S&P500
-0.065
Sharpe Ratio
-0.04
Sortino Ratio
-0.05
Beta
-0.13
Alpha
-0.00
Leverage
2.13 Average
3.43 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

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Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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Suggested Minimum Capital

This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.